The application of timelines to evacuation planning

Opper, S. (2004) Presented at the 44th Annual Conference of the Floodplain Management Authorities of NSW, Coffs Harbour, 2004

In 1997 the New South Wales (NSW) State Emergency Service (SES) became involved in the Hawkesbury-Nepean Floodplain Management Strategy, a project aimed at addressing the flood risk for up to 80,000 people living on the floodplain downstream of Warragamba Dam to the west of Sydney. A critical aspect of the studies that underpinned the development of the strategy was an understanding of the timing and dynamics of large scale flood evacuation operations. To assist the author is his own understanding of that problem, experimentation was undertaken to apply conventional time line project management to map out the elements of an evacuation operation. It was immediately obvious that the time line was an excellent tool for communicating the problem to others. The time line analysis became a central element of major project work used to demonstrate the need for a new multi-million dollar high level flood evacuation route for Windsor in the Hawkesbury-Nepean Valley. Since 1997 the methodology has matured into a functional tool that can be used to assess the evacuation requirements of existing communities or the impact of new urban development proposals. This paper explains the basic principles of evacuation time line analysis, looks at the key inputs that are required to enable the analysis to be undertaken, and also discusses the limitations of the methodology.

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